Switzerland is ranked the world’s most resilient country in the new Global Investment Risk and Resilience Index, with Denmark, Norway, Singapore, and Sweden completing the Top Five. The index is the first of its kind to measure countries’ exposure to geopolitical, economic, and climate risks as well as their capacity to adapt and recover, revealing how resilience is increasingly concentrated in smaller, highly adaptive states. These are the places you want to be if you can.
Developed by global residence and citizenship advisory firm Henley & Partners in partnership with the AI-powered analytics platform AlphaGeo, the index provides investors, families, and governments with a systematic framework to navigate a world of overlapping risks — from geopolitical conflict and inflation to technological disruption and climate change. By combining risk exposure and resilience capacity into a single score, it identifies the countries that are best placed to preserve wealth and generate long-term value, helping investors, businesses, and families construct a better global risk profile to thrive amid uncertainty while giving governments a benchmark to measure competitiveness.
Switzerland ranks 1st worldwide, driven by exceptionally low risk and world-leading innovation, governance, and social metrics. Close behind, the Nordic countries of Denmark (2nd), Norway (3rd), and Sweden (5th) exemplify how equitable growth, robust institutions, and forward-looking social policy create world-leading resilience. Singapore takes 4th place with the lowest legal and regulatory risk globally.
Dr. Christian H. Kaelin, Chairman of Henley & Partners, says he is pleased with his firm’s latest research and global barometer for measuring complex risks. “This index is a new, useful tool in understanding where true sovereign risks and resilience lie. For investors, companies, and global citizens, it offers unprecedented clarity on where to place confidence and capital in the years ahead.”
The World’s Most Fragile States
The index builds on AlphaGeo’s pioneering two-pronged framework, first developed for its Climate Risk and Resilience Index. Applied to global investment conditions, the framework recognizes that exposure and preparedness should be treated as distinct yet equally important factors. The index’s investment categories reflect its integrated scoring of risk and resilience, offering a balanced snapshot of each market’s relative investment profile. Countries in the Prime Market category, for example, combine exceptionally high resilience versus risks, while those on the Risk Watchlist display structural vulnerabilities alongside elevated risk exposure.
South Sudan (226th), Lebanon (225th), Haiti (224th), Sudan (223rd), and Pakistan (222nd) sit at the bottom of the index. Significant political instability and considerable legal and regulatory risks underpin their high-risk profiles. Weak governance, limited innovation and economic complexity, and low social development further constrain their resilience, reflecting entrenched instability and minimal adaptive capacity.
As Dr. Parag Khanna, Founder and CEO of AlphaGeo, explains, “High risk is not always negative if matched by strong resilience, while high resilience can conceal vulnerabilities, especially in advanced economies now facing political or fiscal pressures. Adaptation is the new imperative. The societies most committed to building resilience — through innovation, governance, and climate preparedness — will attract investment, talent, and long-term growth.”
From the G7 to BRICS: Diverging Paths of Risk and Resilience
The G7 economies continue to stand out for their stability, balancing relatively low risk with strong resilience, led by Germany, which ranks 10th globally, driven by climate readiness, economic complexity, and innovation. Germany is followed by Canada (13th), the UK (23rd), France (29th), the US (32nd), Japan (35th), and Italy (48th). Collectively, the G7 demonstrates how robust institutions and adaptive capacity anchor global economic influence.
Commenting on the new index, David K. Young, President of the Committee for Economic Development at The Conference Board, says “resilience is no longer the task of governments alone — it requires a partnership between states, businesses, and societies. The nations that align stability with adaptability will not only withstand future shocks but transform uncertainty into long-term prosperity — the true global resilience dividend.”
Beyond the G7, China and Russia present somewhat contrasting profiles. China (49th) is categorized as a Favorable Outlook investment destination, where moderate risk is offset by substantial resilience built on investment capacity and innovation strength. This combination signals adaptability despite structural headwinds such as demographic shifts and regulatory pressures. Russia (94th), however, faces a more precarious position: although classified as high resilience, it is also high risk, driven by political instability and regulatory uncertainty, which places it in the Cautious Potential band.
Their BRICS counterparts, South Africa (145th), Brazil (150th), and India (155th), exhibit moderate resilience weakened by elevated risks. Each face an uncertain political as well as legal and regulatory environment, with India’s substantial exposure to physical climate hazards further exacerbating its overall risk profile.
Dr. Tim Klatte, a partner at Grant Thornton China, says “the index shows that resilience — not sheer size or wealth — is what determines a nation’s ability to safeguard prosperity. Fragile states face the double burden of high risks and low resilience, and without stronger governance and diversification they remain stuck in cycles of vulnerability. Emerging markets like India and Nigeria hold immense potential, but until they tackle governance and inequality their risks will continue to overshadow opportunities. Ultimately, economic diversification and quality governance are the strongest defenses against volatility — the true bedrock of resilience.”
Strength Beyond Scale: Small States Showing Big Resilience
Beyond the overall leaders, the index highlights standout performers across key parameters, with smaller nations continuing to shine. Luxembourg (6th) and Finland (7th) excel through transparent governance, climate resilience, and sustainable policies. They are joined by Greenland (8th), the Netherlands (9th), and Germany (10th), underscoring that true resilience rests not on size or military might but on adaptability, strong institutions, and forward-looking innovation.
However, as Misha Glenny, award-winning BBC journalist and Rector of the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna, points out, “Nine of the world’s ten most resilient countries on the index are in Europe, yet for all its steadiness, the continent’s long-term stability is far from guaranteed — geopolitical pressures, social unrest, and technological dependence are exposing deep fault lines.”
Just outside the Top 10, Iceland (11th) and Liechtenstein (12th) rank among the safest markets worldwide, combining exceptionally low risk with strong resilience. Canada (13th) is classified as very low risk, driven by relatively subdued inflation, stable currency performance, and minimal physical climate risk, while Austria’s (14th) resilience is propelled by its social progress, climate resilience, and economic complexity. Estonia (15th) and Ireland (17th) are distinguished by robust governance and social progress, while New Zealand (18th) sets a global benchmark for governance and regulatory quality. South Korea (25th) demonstrates world-class adaptive capacity, with prowess in economic complexity and innovation, while Czechia (16th) and Slovenia (22nd) emerge as prime European markets, defined by their economic sophistication and complexity.
Building Resilient Sovereign Portfolios
The index reveals that countries with well-structured residence and citizenship programs consistently rank higher in resilience. By attracting long-term capital, entrepreneurial talent, and innovation, such programs reinforce governance, fiscal stability, and adaptive capacity. Singapore’s Global Investor Program has delivered multiplier effects across its economy, while inflows from Portugal’s Residence Program provided critical capital during its debt crisis. Smaller states such as Grenada, Malta, Mauritius, and St. Kitts and Nevis also demonstrate how program revenues can bolster education, infrastructure, and long-term stability.
For ultra-wealthy families, resilience will become the ultimate asset. The index enables individuals to increase evidence-based jurisdictional advantage by systematically constructing sovereign risk diversification that can withstand potential compound shocks. Switzerland, Singapore, Luxembourg, some Caribbean nations, or New Zealand can anchor generational wealth strategies, while wealth hubs including Hong Kong, Austria, or Canada add further geographical diversification. Emerging players like the UAE and Uruguay further broaden the mix, transforming geographic diversification into an active wealth strategy.
As Dr. Kaelin points out, “resilience now matters more than wealth or political structure as the true driver of future success as we have entered a more volatile phase of history. For nations, it underpins lasting prosperity. For investors and global families, it offers both protection and a powerful engine for long-term value creation. Dr. Khanna agrees, saying “low risk and high resilience are not the same thing — some countries limit exposure, others thrive through adaptability. The most competitive and secure are those that balance both, creating environments where capital and confidence can flourish.”
Founding Executive Director at Global Community Engagement and Resilience Fund (GCERF) and Professor of Conflict, Peace and Security at Maastricht University, Prof. Dr. Khalid Koser, says the index provides more than a diagnostic: it offers a roadmap. “It links investment and development priorities to measures that strengthen social and institutional resilience. It is a call for cross-sector collaboration — where policymakers, investors, and communities can work together to help shift countries from a cycle of fragility to one of confidence and growth. Ultimately, it reminds us that resilience is not a by-product of prosperity, but its precondition.”
As Jacob Shapiro, Head of Geopolitical & Macro Research at Bespoke Group, concludes, “No index is a crystal ball, but this one is a powerful guide. By mapping both risk and resilience, it sharpens investor judgment, validates assumptions, and highlights contradictions — such as China’s relatively elevated risk paired with its high resilience. These tensions force investors to think more deeply, making it a tool not of certainty, but of clarity.”
The Global Investment Risk and Resilience Index is available on the Henley & Partners website, accompanied by expert commentary and in-depth analysis.
