SIFMA today issues its quarterly government securities issuance and rates forecast for the third quarter of 2011.
The full report is available at the following link:http://www.sifma.org/GovtForecast3Q2011/
Highlights of the forecast include:
- SIFMA forecasts total net Treasury bill, note and bond issuance to be $362 billion in the third quarter of 2011, almost double the net $189.73 billion issued (and 18 percent above the $307 billion previously forecast in SIMFA’s 2Q’11 issuance survey( in the second quarter of 2011 (actual include cash management balances).
- Survey respondents forecast that Treasury will issue $36 billion of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) in the third quarter, 5 percent above the $34.3 billion issued in 2Q’11.
- Survey participants forecast a median $339 billion of Treasury coupon securities in the third quarter, 5 percent below 2Q’11’s net issuance of $356.7 billion. Gross coupon issuance is expected to total approximately $535 billion, 3.6 percent below the $55.16 billion issued in the prior quarter.
- Survey participants also forecast total gross coupon issuance by the four largest federal agencies to be $190.2 billion in the third quarter.
- Survey respondents expect to see net bill issuance of $23 billion in the third quarter, a much different outcome than the $167 billion redeemed in the second quarter of 2011. Similar to the previous quarter forecast, there was a wide variance in responses, which showed there was no consensus on expectations for the net bill issuance.
