SIFMA today issued its quarterly government securities issuance and rates forecast for the second quarter of 2011.
The full report is available at the following link: www.sifma.org/GovtForecast2Q2011
Highlights of the forecast include:
- SIFMA forecasts total net Treasury bill, note and bond issuance to be $307 billion in the second quarter of 2011, approximately 15.8 percent above the net $265.2 billion issued (but 4.2 percent below the $320.5 billion previously forecast in SIFMA’s 1Q’11 issuance survey) in the first quarter of 2011 (actuals include cash management balances).
- Survey respondents forecast that Treasury will issue $32 billion of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) in the second quarter, 6.4 percent below the $34.2 billion issued in 1Q’11.
- Survey participants forecast a median $357 billion of Treasury coupon securities in the second quarter, 5.2 percent above 1Q’11’s net issuance of $339.2 billion. Gross coupon issuance is expected to total approximately $533 billion, 3.1 percent below the $550.2 billion issued in the prior quarter.
- Survey participants also forecast total gross coupon issuance by the four largest Federal agencies to be $227.4 billion in the second quarter.
- Survey respondents expect to see net bill redemption of $50 billion in the second quarter, slightly smaller than the $74 billion redeemed in the first quarter of 2011. The wide variance in responses received show there was no consensus on expectations for net bill issuance.
