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SIFMA today issued its quarterly government securities issuance and rates forecast for the second quarter of 2013. The full report is available here.
Highlights of the forecast include:
SIFMA forecasts total net Treasury bill, note and bond issuance to be $114.0 billion in the second quarter of 2013, 67.4 percent below the net $349.9 billion issued in the first quarter of 2013 (actuals include cash management balances).
Survey respondents forecast that Treasury will issue $38.0 billion of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) in the second quarter, 2.7 percent above the $37 billion issued in the first quarter.
Survey participants forecast a median net issuance of Treasury coupon securities at $209.0 billion for the second quarter, 11.8 percent higher than the first quarter’s net issuance of $186.9 billion. Gross coupon issuance is expected to total approximately $539.0 billion, 22.8 percent higher than the $439.0 billion issued in the first quarter.
Survey participants also forecast total gross coupon issuance by the four largest Federal agencies to increase to $197.8 billion in the second quarter. The projections reflect an 86.2 percent increase from the first quarter, with much of the forecasted increase coming from Freddie Mac and Federal Home Loan Bank.
Survey participants expect to see net bill redemption of $95.0 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to the $163.0 billion issuance in the first quarter. Expectations for net bill redemption varied, demonstrating consensus in direction but not scale in forecast of issuance.
