SIFMA today issued its quarterly government securities issuance and rates forecast for the first quarter of 2011.
The full report is available at the following link: www.sifma.org/GovtForecast1Q2011
Highlights of the forecast include:
- SIFMA forecasts total net Treasury bill, note and bond issuance to be $320.5 billion in the first quarter of 2011, approximately 11.7 percent below the net $362.9 billion issued (and over 17 percent below the $387.0 billion previously forecast in SIFMA’s 4Q’10 issuance survey) in the final quarter of 2010 (actuals include cash management balances).
- Survey respondents forecast that Treasury will issue $33 billion of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) in the first quarter, a 63 percent leap from the $20.3 billion issued in 4Q’10.
- Survey participants forecast a median $338 billion of Treasury coupon securities in the first quarter, 10.8 percent below 4Q’10’s net issuance of $378.9 billion. Gross coupon issuance is expected to total approximately $501 billion, 2.8 percent below the $515.4 billion issued in the prior quarter.
- Survey participants also forecast total gross coupon issuance by the four largest Federal agencies to be $239.5 billion in the first quarter, compared to $240.6 billion in 4Q’10.
- Survey respondents expect to see net bill redemption of $17.5 billion in the first quarter, slightly greater than the $15.9 billion redeemed in the fourth quarter of 2010. The wide variance in responses received show there was no consensus on expectations for net bill issuance.
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