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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its global growth forecast down to 2.8 percent for 2025 and 3.0 percent for 2026. Concurrently, the U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies while 10-year U.S. Treasury yields edged upward, trading in the range of 4.0-4.5 percent. Amid growing concerns about the repercussion of trade tensions on the U.S. economy, investors increasingly divested from U.S. bonds, which were traditionally considered safe-haven assets. The Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25 percent to 4.50 percent as expected, marking the third consecutive rate pause.
SET Senior Executive Vice President Soraphol Tulayasathien revealed that, according to data from the Thai Bond Market Association (ThaiBMA), foreign fund flows showed net inflows of approximately THB 60 billion (USD 1.80 billion) in April 2025, the highest level since February 2022. Based on analyst assessments, this significant capital inflow was driven by eroding confidence in the U.S. dollar due to escalating trade tensions, stronger demand for alternative safe-haven assets, and expectations of monetary policy easing in Thailand following its weaker-than-expected economic performance. The Thai capital market stability markedly improved following the U.S. announcement of a 90-day reprieve for the reciprocal tariffs on April 10. Complementing this external development, the temporary measures implemented by The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) from April 8-11 also helped curb market volatility, as evidenced by the SET Index demonstrating lower volatility than several regional peers. In addition, the SET Index increased in latter half of April, with daily gains continuously spreading to more stocks across various sectors. Thai equities continued to trade at attractive valuations.
Key highlights for April
- At the end of April 2025, the SET Index rose 3.4 percent MoM to close at 1,197.26 points, outpacing most regional exchanges, with a YTD decrease of 14.5 percent.
- Compared to the end of 2024, industry groups that outperformed the SET Index were Financials, Agro & Food Industry, Resources, and Consumer Products.
- SET’s and Market for Alternative Investment (mai)’s average daily trading value declined 11.3 percent YoY to THB 39.41 billion (approx. USD 1.18 billion). Foreign investors continued to dominate trading activity, accounting for 50.52 percent of total trading value which was the highest among all investor categories. However, they registered a net selling position of THB 14.59 billion.
- In April 2025, there were two newly listed companies on mai: LTMH pcl (LTMH) and Bangkok Asset Intergroup pcl (BKA).
- The Thai stock exchange’s forward P/E ratio at the end of April 2025 was 13.0 times, above the Asian stock market’s average of 11.5 times. The historical P/E ratio stood at 15.8 times, exceeding the Asian stock market’s average of 11.4 times.
- Dividend yield ratio at the end of April 2025 was 4.00 percent, higher than the Asian stock markets’ average of 3.40 percent.
Derivatives Market
- Thailand Futures Exchange (TFEX)’s daily trading volume in April 2025 averaged 433,408 contracts, down 16.6 percent from the previous month largely due to the lower trading volume of Single Stock Futures and SET50 Index Futures. The YTD average daily trading volume in 2025 was 456,561 contracts, down 5.6 percent, mainly due to the decline in trading volume of Single Stock Futures and Gold Online Futures.
