Platts Pre-Report Survey Of Analysts Results: UNICA Sugarcane Crush - Advance Estimates Suggest A Cane Crush Of 38.76 Million Mt In Brazil's Center-South Likely 40.29% Sugar Mix For H2 May 2015

Platts Survey of Analysts

Cane crush: 38.76 million metric tons (mt)
Sugar production: 1,834.75 million mt
Total ethanol production: 1,676.75 million liters (ltr)
Hydrous ethanol production: 1,088.57 million ltr
Anhydrous ethanol production: 586.14 million ltr
Sugar mix: 40.29 %
Ethanol mix: 59.68%

Sugarcane crush volumes in the key Center-South region of Brazil in the second half of May are expected to total 38.76 million mt, with mills focused on ethanol production, a Platts survey of analysts showed Monday.

The wider range of analysts' expectations for cane crush spanned from 35 million mt to 41 million mt. The Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (UNICA) is expected to release its bi-monthly sugarcane harvest data on Tuesday.

Claudiu Covrig, an analyst at Platts’ agricultural analysis unit Kingsman, forecasted cane crush at 39 million mt, a little greater than the analysts' consensus. Cane yield, measured by total recoverable sugar (or ATR) at 124.5-125 kilograms per metric ton (kg/mt), will likely be about 3 kg/mt lower than in the same period last year, according to the Kingsman forecast.

In terms of sugar mix expectations, no notable recovery is likely, said Covrig, who estimated the sugar mix will probably prove to be 39%. During the second half of May hydrous ethanol “paid better than sugar and domestic hydrous demand at the pump continued to be high,” said Covrig, adding that the ATR was below normal for this time of year.

"Later in the harvest, if ATR is recovering we should see more sugar coming out of Brazil with a higher sugar mix -- probably greater than 44.5% to 45%," Covrig said.

The Platts poll showed analysts expect sugar mills to have focused on ethanol production, with ethanol representing 59.68% of the cane crush in the May 16 to May 31 period, with sugar at 40.29%.

An average of analysts' expectations suggests that sugar production will be 1,834.75 mt, with total ethanol output of 1.676 billion liters and including 1.088 billion liters of hydrous and 586.14 million liters of anhydrous ethanol.

The focus on ethanol production, mainly on hydrous, is explained by the high liquidity of the product on the domestic market, analyst noted. According to data from the Brazilian Petroleum Agency, hydrous ethanol sales reached 49.13% of Otto cycle fuel sales in April.

Visit the Platts and Platts’ Kingsman websites for more information on sugar and biofuels.

*Kingsman is Platts’ agricultural business unit, acquired in 2012.

**In its bi-monthly cane harvest update, UNICA publishes a range of sugarcane harvest production metrics for Brazil’s Center-South region, also broken down into São Paulo and other states.