Growth in the G3 economies – the US, Euro Area and China – is expected to be 3.23% in the third quarter of 2014, with respect to the same period in the previous year, according to the Now-Casting growth monitor. The growth rate in the fourth quarter is expected to be higher, at 3.38%. Overall, the growth rate has been relatively stable throughout this year, and we expect G3 growth for the full year to be 3.3%.
Jasper McMahon, CEO of Now-Casting Economics, commented: “The aggregate figure masks significant regional changes. In particular the US picture has improved with upward revisions of both Q1 and Q2 growth, and a significant improvement in the outlook for both Q3 and Q4. On the other hand, the outlook in the Euro Area continues to deteriorate, and the most recent data have caused a downgrading in our expectations of both Q3 and Q4 growth in China.”
Contributions to G3 growth weighted by share of 2013 GDP from IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2014
Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; Eurostat; National Bureau of Statistics of China; IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2014; Now-Casting Economics Ltd.
1 Figures for Q1 and Q2 have changed since the last G3 press release as a result of revisions to official GDP estimates
2 Weights are shares of 2013 G3 GDP from IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2014
Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; Eurostat; National Bureau of Statistics of China; IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2014 Database; Now-Casting Economics Ltd.
Contributions to G3 growth weighted by share of G3 GDP growth in each year.
Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2013; Now-Casting Economics Ltd
HISTORIC GDP GROWTH RATES – WORLD VS G3
year-on-year % growth
Contributions to G3 growth weighted by share of 2013 GDP from IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2014.
Sources: 2014 figures from Now-Casting Economics Ltd; other figures from IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2014
The next estimate of G3 GDP growth will be published on Tuesday, 21st October, 2014. G3 GDP estimates will be published on the 15th of each month or the first working day thereafter, except in months in which the first official estimate of GDP for the US, Euro Area or China is published close to the middle of the month. In those months the Now-Casting global growth monitor will be published immediately after the relevant official release.
