MNI Russia Consumer Sentiment Indicator: Russia Consumer Sentiment Falls Close To Record Low - Business Conditions Deteriorate Following Oil Price Slump

The MNI Russia Consumer Sentiment Indicator fell 3.4% on the month to 70.0 in September from 72.5 in August, barely above the record low outturn of 69.2 in March.
 
Consumer confidence had shown signs of bottoming in the first quarter, although the subsequent pick-up has proved short-lived. Sentiment averaged 71.1 in Q3, down 4% compared with 74.1 in Q2, and close to the record low seen in Q1.
 
All five components of the MNI Russia Consumer Sentiment Indicator declined between August and September. The largest downward impact came from expectations for Business Conditions in One Year, as respondents downgraded their outlook for the economy. They were also the most pessimistic about Current Business Conditions since the series began.
 
Expecting that the economy will continue to struggle in the low oil price environment, respondents were gloomier than ever before in their outlook for the job market and a record proportion of our panel were fearful for the future state of their finances. Durable Buying Conditions, a measure of whether it is a good or bad time to purchase a large household good, hit a record low this month.
 
A record 79.3% of our panel reported that they were dissatisfied with the current level of prices and inflationary expectations continued to trend higher. Respondents were split about the magnitude of inflation, but almost a third of them expected prices to increase by more than 25% over the next year.
 
Fewer consumers thought it to be a good time to purchase a car as they were put off by the high cost of maintenance and their lack of purchasing power.
 
Commenting on the latest survey, Philip Uglow, Chief Economist of MNI Indicators said, “There’s nothing positive to take from the September survey. Consumer sentiment is back close to a record low with respondents concerned about the outlook for finances, the economy and job prospects.”
 
“It’s interesting to compare the increasingly pessimistic views of consumers with the recent improvement in our sister business sentiment survey. The conclusion appears to be that consumers are shouldering the majority of the slowdown in Russia.”

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