The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, tumbled a further eight points to 37.2 in November, contracting for a third consecutive month. Excluding the 2020 pandemic shock, this was the lowest reading since the 2008/09 Global Financial Crisis.
- After marginal improvements in October, only Employment and Inventories recorded November upticks. All other indexes saw marked declines. Production, New Orders and Order Backlogs fell further to June 2020 lows. Only Inventories and Prices Paid remained expansionary.
- Production plunged by 9.2 points to 35.9, contracting for the third month running to 17 points below the 12-month average. Low order levels dampened production. Close to 90% of respondents recorded the same or lower production.
- New Orders recorded the lowest sub-index level at 30.7, 8.5 points below the October level. Weak demand conditions saw 46% of firms experience falling orders. Inflation concerns, higher inventories and the slowing housing market were cited as key contributors.
- Order Backlogs experienced the largest decline, receding 11.2 points to 36.1. As new orders weaken further, firms are quickly working through outstanding customer orders.
- Employment ticked up 1.5 points to 47.1, improving for a second month from the brief September dip.
- Inventories grew 2.9 points to 59.8. Anecdotal evidence showed firms were actively looking to normalize levels of stock as orders weaken. Nonetheless, weak demand conditions made it difficult to bring down inventory levels.
- Supplier deliveries declined by 9.4 points to 49.9 in November, nearing pre-pandemic levels as supply pressures eased. Overall lead times remain historically long and transparency issues persist.
- Prices Paid moderated by 8.6 points in November. This is 15.9 points below the 12-month average and signals a continued slowing in prices. Falling freight costs contributed to lower prices paid and further easing is expected in Q1 2023
We asked firms whether they were passing the higher cost of doing business onto customers.30% of respondents were able to pass on higher costs, whilst the vast majority (60%) were able to do so only partly. 10% of firms were unable to charge higher prices to account for rising costs.
