The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, was revised down to 58.7 in December from 59.5, as the result of the seasonal adjustment recalculation.
In aggregate, the Barometer was revised lower by 0.1 point in 2020. Growth was revised down in Q4, while it was revised up in Q2. In Q1 and Q3 the Barometer was unchanged.
July saw the largest upward revision, with the Barometer revised up 1.1 points to 53.0 from its initial estimate of 51.9, while October recorded the biggest downward revision, lower by 1.0 point to 60.1.
In H1 the Barometer saw an upwardly revised figure of 40.9 (+0.2 point), remaining in contraction territory and showing the Covid-19 crisis had a strong impact on activity. The second half of the year was characterized by economic recovery, but the upturn of the Barometer and its main components was slightly softer than previously reported. Production saw the largest downward revision in the second half of the year, revised down 0.9 point.
Overall, 2020 data from the Chicago survey saw minor revisions. However, the strong impact of the pandemic on activity along with uncertainty about the path of economic recovery and its final influence on the trend component may lead to stronger revisions in the future.
All series in the Chicago Report are seasonally adjusted by the Census X-12 procedure and the seasonal adjustment factors are recalculated annually every January.
