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Frankfurt Stock Exchange is now measuring the expectations of private investors for the first time with its Bull/Bear Index. Until now, the indicator only measured the expectations of institutional investors. The survey has now also been extended to include questions on individual securities and point forecasts. In cooperation with Comdirect Bank, around 600 selected private investors provide weekly information on whether they are optimistic or pessimistic about the market. The data is collected every Wednesday and available from 6 p.m. on the website www.boerse-frankfurt.de under “Sentiment Indicators”.
The Frankfurt Stock Exchange asks investors whether the DAX will rise, fall or move sideways in the next four weeks. Participants also state the level they expect the DAX to be at. This information can reveal the strength of a trend and enable more detailed statements about investor sentiment. The decisive factor is that the investors questioned are actually active in the market. The statements thus reflect real investor behaviour and are particularly meaningful.
The Frankfurt Stock Exchange has been calculating the Bull/Bear Index for institutional investors since 2001 together with the behavioural finance research firm Cognitrend. The new feature is now the survey of private investors.
The Bull/Bear Index currently stands at 42.1 points, in the pessimistic region below the 50 point mark which seperates optimistic from pessimistic market expectations. Professional investors have similarly pessimistic expectations with the Bull/Bear Index at 43.9 points.
About the Bull/Bear Index for institutional investors:
Around 300 investors have been taking part in the survey for institutional investors since 2001, including fund managers, proprietary traders and asset managers. This covers a large part of local demand for German equities on the part of institutional investors. The special feature of the Bull/Bear Index is that only investors active on the market take part in the survey. Unlike analysts, they have both emotional and material ties to their commitments and their assessments generally reflect their positions. Surveying the same investors each week as far as possible is important to generating stable results
