The coming week is capped by the release of the U.S. employment data on Friday. Over the course of the week there is a lot of economic data, but not much that will distract from the next reading on unemployment and payrolls. Of next importance will be the data on consumer spending as the U.S. holiday shopping season approaches.
The November employment report on Friday will be the high point of the week. At the time of writing, median forecasts are for an increase in nonfarm payrolls of around 150,000. This would be quite similar to the headline number in the October report. Back-to-back months of solid gains in jobs would be welcome, but it will take higher payroll additions for many months before the unemployment rate starts to fall to levels more consistent with a sustained economic recovery.
Other labour market indicators for November during the week include the November Challenger report on layoff intentions and ADP National Employment on Wednesday, the Monster.com Employment Index in the early hours of Thursday, and the employment components of the ISM national manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes. The manufacturing index will be out on Wednesday, while the non-manufacturing index is slated for Friday, and thus will not be available to forecasters to help set expectations for service-providing payrolls.
There are a number of Fed officials on the calendar, but...
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