The week of November 15 has a variety of data reports, and much of it is of first tier data to shape the economic outlook.
A few Fed officials will be out giving speeches. Most of them have already made public comments in the post-FOMC period and staked out their respective positions in regards to the large-scale asset purchase program. The Senate Banking Committee is expected to vote on Tuesday on the nomination of Peter Diamond for the Board of Governors. If passed by the full Senate, there could well be a Fed Board with no empty seats by the December 14 FOMC meeting.
Topping the list is probably the retail sales numbers for October to be released on Monday. The weekly data on retail activity were mostly lacklustre over fiscal October, but ended on a strong note in the final week with the approach of Halloween. There may be a pause in October for many types of retailers as the back-to-school shopping period ended in September and the holiday sales period has yet to rev up in November. Total retail sales may get a boost from higher gasoline prices and a rise in motor vehicle sales.
The October CPI report on Wednesday is preceded by the PPI data on Tuesday. Both are likely to reflect the recent increases in commodities costs for food and energy and for other items like precious metals, industrial metals and cotton. On the producer side, most companies will do whatever they can to avoid passing on rising input costs, but some pass-through is likely. For consumers, prices have already been increasing for items like coffee and jewellery.
October starts of houses and permits issued on Wednesday will probably be close to the current trend of starts near historic lows and permits signalling only small increases in the next few months.
The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for November is due Tuesday along with Industrial production and capacity utilization for October. Fed District Bank manufacturing surveys are scheduled from the New York and Philadelphia Feds due on Monday and Thursday, respectively.
Initial claims for the week ended November 13 will include the survey comparison week data from the October 16 week and there should be a noticeable step down from the 455,000 level in the prior month. This could suggest another favourable employment report for November...read more
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