The June 27 week will see the end of the second quarter 2011. Data much of the last month of the quarter will be released in the coming weeks. While there may be some upside surprises, on balance the second quarter will probably be most notable for slower activity in housing and softness in the labor market, while prices showed signs of holding at more elevated levels. The week leads up to the three-day holiday weekend for Independence Day the following Monday. There is no early close to the bond market on Friday. However, offices will likely empty out as soon as the morning's data is out of the way. There is a fair amount of data on the economic calendar next week, but little that will seem urgent, especially since the next release of payroll data is not until Friday, July 8 and very little of this data will feed into expectations for that report. The payroll survey week fell relatively late in June on the 18th, which means the employment numbers will not be out until the second Friday of July on the 8th.
Probably the highlight of the week will be the ISM Manufacturing Index for June on Friday. The general tone of the reports released so far this month from various Fed District Banks and regional purchasing managers’ indexes indicate that the factory sector continues to feel the impacts of supply chain disruptions and severe weather. The national index probably will be of a piece with the regional data. The question is...Read more
