It is a fairly light US data calendar for the coming week with highlights retail sales and the Fed's Beige Book. Fed speakers are fairly numerous and this will be the first set of comments since the recent release of the FOMC minutes.
Retail sales on Thursday will round out the available numbers for consumer spending in Q4 and help firm up expectations for growth as 2011 comes to an end. December sales of motor vehicles were somewhat above expectations, and the same-store sales comparisons point to a fairly good month for department stores and apparel retailers. Overall, the holiday shopping season appears to have turned in a solid performance in terms of volume, but deep discounting may have restrained the dollar levels. Declining prices for gasoline will have lowered sales totals at service stations.
The international trade deficit data on Friday probably will remain in line with recent months, with the deficit reflecting higher imports of holiday goods and cheaper petroleum, and some easing in exports in response to slower growth in some regions. Increases in the dollar in December will not yet effect in this data.
However, the import price index for on Friday is likely to reflect stronger prices for some finished goods and foods. Petroleum prices are measured in dollars, and oil prices were slightly higher in the month, and so should be visible in the index. Export prices could be somewhat lower on the agricultural component as food commodity prices were broadly down in December.
The preliminary Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for January is set for release on...Read more
