A steady feed of economic data in the January 31 week is capped by the January employment report on Friday. In the wake of the FOMC meeting of January 25-26, conditions in the labour market will be even more closely watched in reference to the outlook for monetary policy that largely hinges on a pickup in job growth.
Central bank announcements are expected from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the ECB, while Fed policymakers are returning to public speaking after the end of the press blackout period around the FOMC meeting.
The January employment report on Friday overshadows the rest of the data during the week, but the days leading up to the release are not devoid of interest. At the moment, expectations are for another month of mild increase of around 130,000. This is close to the fourth quarter 2010 average of 128,000 and would constitute a trend-like increase. This is a nice gain, but not enough to draw down the large pool of unemployed and under-employed workers that is a major concern behind the Fed's current monetary policy.
The most closely monitored of the economic reports in advance of the employment data is the ADP National Employment Report, which is due on Wednesday. Last month the numbers pointed to an outsized gain in payrolls that did not emerge. As a result, analysts may be a little wary of the January data.
The ISM indexes of manufacturing and non-manufacturing are set for Tuesday and Thursday, respectively. On the factory side, data so far for January from the regional Fed and NAPM surveys suggests that activity has continued to expand. This bodes well for the manufacturing payroll data in the Friday employment report. Conditions in the service sector are less well documented for January, but...read more
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