The December 20 week is shortened by the Christmas holidays in the US and Europe and the majority of the economic data on the calendar will be released on Wednesday and Thursday. Any other time of the year these data would have market-moving potential, but the proximity to the holiday suggests that unless there is something outside of expectations, it may receive little attention.
The Bank of Japan governors will meet on Monday and Tuesday. Modestly better economic news should keep the bank on hold for the moment, although the easing bias will remain in place. After this, there are no major central bank meetings on the calendar until early January.
The third and final estimate of third quarter US GDP will be reported on Wednesday. At this point any revisions are likely to be small and offsetting. The 2.5% growth rate in the third quarter reported last month is probably slightly below what will be printed. In any case, the fourth quarter is now well advanced, and data so far suggest a strengthening in economic activity, particularly for consumer spending and lower net exports.
Thursday’s Personal Income and spending figure...read more
