The December 6 week has a sparse data calendar and it will probably be the series of central bank announcements that will be the big news. After an extremely busy data schedule in the November 29 week, the calendar shifts to a few reports, most of which are second-tier in market interest. Friday is both the busiest day and the one with the most important economic data releases.
The data on the international trade deficit for October on Friday will do much to set expectations for the preliminary estimate of Q3 GDP when it is released on December 22. Demand for US goods abroad appears to be on the rise at a faster pace than that for goods imported to the US. If so, this means lower net exports in the GDP report.
The preliminary reading for the Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in December is also due Friday. Consumers' perception of conditions seems to be taking a turn for the better. The end of the election has reduced uncertainty, and there is more positive news on the economy to lift spirits, particularly in regard to the labour market. Both the Conference Board and University of Michigan measures showed marked improvement at the end of November, and this should continue into the first weeks of December.
The November indexes for import and export prices are also due Friday. The data is unadjusted. Imports are likely to gain on petroleum once again on higher oil prices. There may also be some impacts from foreign exchange rates. Export prices are likely to rise on gains in commodities like wheat, corn and soybeans. The value of the US dollar was generally more stable in November and should have a limited impact on prices.
Initial claims for the week...
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