There is a lot of economic data on the calendar in the coming week. The standouts are likely to be the March reports on retail activity and the changes in the Consumer Price Index. The Beige Book will also be closely parsed for its assessment of economic conditions in the 12 Fed Districts. The March report on retail and food sales on Wednesday will finish out the data available for the first quarter. So far January and February had respectable gains. March should get a boost from rising prices for gasoline at service stations. Data on import price indexes should be pushed higher by petroleum prices and to a lesser extent by increases in food commodities and non-petroleum industrial supplies. Export prices indexes are likely to get another boost from agricultural prices, although it should be a smaller gain than in the prior month.
The PPI survey takes its reading on oil prices usually in the second week of the month. Oil prices had not yet peaked at that time, but there was still a double-digit gain in prices in March from February. Gains in the March CPI are likely to be concentrated in rising gasoline prices, which were up about 10% compared to the prior month. The two earliest monthly reads on consumer confidence for April are the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index on Tuesday and the preliminary Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday. Confidence plunged in March due to a confluence of bad news about international geopolitical concerns and natural disasters. Also, there was a surge in food and gasoline prices that more than offset a somewhat improved outlook for labour markets.
The data on the international trade deficit for February on Tuesday will provide...Read more
