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Cairo Amman Bank Flash Comment: Jordan's Trade Deficit Narrowed By 15.7% In The First Four Months Of 2015

Date 23/06/2015

The Department of Statistics released figures showing that Jordan’s trade deficit narrowed by JD 526 million or 15.7% during the first  third  of 2015 compared to the same period in 2014.

The trade balance stood at JD -2,835 million in the first third of 2015, compared to JD -3,361 million over the same period in 2014.

CAB_Jordan_Fig1_23June15

All exports, imports, and re-exports decreased over the same time period, as national exports decreased by  13.7% and imports decreased by 14.3%, while re-exports decreased by 2.2%.

Total exports decreased to JD 1,718.0  million in the first third of 2015 from JD 1,954.9 million for the same period in 2014, as intensifying political instability in the region weighs further on Jordan’s main exports. Fertilizer exports decreased sharply by 45 %, fruit and vegetable exports decreased by 37.1%, potash exports decreased by 14.7%, phosphate exports decreased by 10.7%, and pharmaceutical exports decreased by 19.7%. Meanwhile, clothes exports increased by 11.1%.

 On the other hand, imports decreased to reach JD 4,553.5  million in the first third of 2015 from JD 5,315.9 million for the same time period in 2014. The decrease is a result of a decrease in metal and its products imports by 16.6 %, a decrease in plastic imports by 9.3%, while machinery and machinery equipment imports rose 18.5%, vehicle imports rose by 12.3%, and electrical machinery and their parts rose by 3.4% .

Most significantly, crude oil imports have decreased by 44 % to reach JD 820 during the same period from JD 1,466.7 million over the same time period in the previous year, likely due to a drop in international oil prices over the same time period.

CAB_Jordan_Fig2_23June15.jpg

A more detailed look at Jordan’s monthly oil bill reveals that oil imports in April 2015 were down by 61% when compared to March 2014:

                                         In million JD

Month

2014

2015

Nominal Change

% Change

January

404.6

188.9

-215.7

-53.3%

February

264.4

247.5

-16.9

-6.4%

March

319.1

198.0

-121.1

-38.0%

April

478.6

185.0

-293.6

61.3%

Total

1,466.7

819.4

-647.3

-44.13%

 

Looking ahead, the sustained drop in oil prices is expected to continue to reflect positively on the trade balance in 2015, which will help offset the significant drop in exports.