Today, the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) published the results of its Economic Advisory Roundtable semiannual survey. The Roundtable is comprised of the chief U.S. economists from over 20 global and regional financial institutions. The survey assesses the current economic landscape, tariff policy, inflation and monetary policy, the economic outlook, and more. The median outlook for 4Q over 4Q growth in SIFMA’s H2 2025 economic forecast stands at 1.8% for 2025 and 2.2% for 2026, both higher than the H1 2025 projections of 0.9% and 1.9%.
“The U.S. economic and inflation outlook has improved since our last Economist Roundtable survey, with one-third of participants noting an improved 2026 outlook and recession concerns moderating,” said Scott Anderson, Ph.D., Co-Chair of the SIFMA Economist Roundtable and Chief U.S. Economist and Managing Director at BMO. “A series of trade agreements that lowered the average effective U.S. tariff rate, the absence of retaliation from trading partners, and the continued lift from the AI investment boom and rising equity prices collectively helped blunt the worst-case tariff impacts on spending, inflation, and investment, playing a notable role in this year’s economic outperformance. Looking ahead to next year, tariff effects are expected to fade into the background as domestic demand and labor-market slack become more important drivers of price pressures. The Roundtable expressed caution about future market performance, with more than half of participants anticipating a 10% or greater equity market correction and almost a quarter seeing the possibility of a 20% or greater decline by the end of 2026.”
Key Takeaways:
- Economic Growth: The median outlook for 4Q-over-4Q growth in SIFMA’s H2 2025 economic forecast stands at 1.8% for 2025 and 2.2% for 2026—above H1 2025 forecasts. Survey participants saw upside risks to growth from lower tariffs, stronger productivity gains and consumer spending and cited an equity market pullback, rising inflation and a weaker labor market as downside risks.
- Inflation: 90% of respondents saw inflation expectations remaining anchored, even as estimates for core PCE, at 2.9% (Q4 2025 vs. Q4 2024) and 2.5% (Q4 2026 vs. Q4 2025) remain above the Fed’s 2% target. Forecasts for annual growth in core CPI, at 3.1% (Q4 2025 vs. Q4 2024) are modestly lower than forecasts made earlier in the year, with core CPI expected to decline further to 2.8% by Q4 2026.
- Monetary Policy: Following two cuts to the Fed’s policy year-to-date in 2025, respondents see one additional cut by year-end 2025. Over half of respondents (58%) expect at least two more cuts by the end of 2026. In comparison to their H1 2025 outlook, forecasters see slightly more easing on a cumulative basis, with a median Fed Funds estimate of 3.25% in Q4 2026.
- This report also includes forecast tables and charts for the full survey results, as well as an update on where we are in the economic landscape and a reference guide on historical trends for select economic data.
The full report can be found here.
