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The opening plenary session discussed the results worked out by experts and practitioners in the “Russia and the World 2025” scenario project. A majority of participants supported the middle case “clean fuel” scenario which projects that Russia will see the aspirations of the current government develop into reality. In the political field Russia will maintain a “limited form of democracy” which will gradually improve over the years until 2025. Positive political developments will play out in the economy, leading to higher growth rates and a greater diversification of the economy.
The worst case “oil’s curse” scenario suggesting Russia might become an oil dependent state was overwhelmingly rejected by participants. The best case scenario suggesting Russia would see a renaissance was supported by a number of those present. This scenario suggests an interchange between the liberal and siloviki groups, with the liberals leading the country in 2025. Liberal reforms would be introduced and lead to the strongest economic growth of the three scenarios.
The overall sentiment during the session was that the name of the game in Russia is capitalism, which will be a good and important force resulting in greater economic growth and social stability. The diversification of the economy was considered a realistic and necessary way forward.
Over the course of the two-day meeting, more than 290 participants from 26 countries are gathered in Moscow. About 171 participants are from Russia. 189 are business leaders, drawn principally from the Forum's members – 1,000 of the foremost companies from around the world and across economic sectors. The further discussions at the meeting will be shaped around two critical questions:
Will Russia be able to develop legitimate and effective governance, based on the rule of law?
To what extent will diversification be achieved in Russia’s economy?
One of the aims of the World Economic Forum meeting is to propose a five-point action plan to address both of these questions.
