About the Report
A quarterly survey of SIFMA's Primary Dealers and Government Securities Research and Strategist Committees concerning U.S. government issuance and rates forecasts. The committees are composed of trading strategists and research analysts at SIFMA member firms who specialize in the U.S. government and agency securities markets. The survey is intended to provide market participants with the current consensus expectations and median forecasts of many of the primary dealers and other firms active in the U.S. government and agency securities markets.
DOWNLOADS
- US Government Forecast 2012 Q3(PDF)
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Summary
The SIFMA Quarterly Issuance Survey forecasts total net Treasury bill, note, and bond issuance to be $264.5 billion in the third quarter of 2012, 64.4 percent above the net $160.9 billion issued in the second quarter (actuals include cash management balances).
Excluding cash management bills (CMBs), total net issuance stood at $160.9 billion in 2Q'12, a 55.5 percent decrease from $361.2 billion in the prior quarter. For the first time (SIFMA records started in 1Q'06), there were no CMBs issued during the quarter.
The total first quarter net issuance of $160.9 billion was 59.9 percent lower than the $401.2 billion issued in the previous quarter and 11.6 percent below the Treasury's April borrowing estimate of $182 billion for the second quarter of 2012.
Credits
SIFMA Capital Markets
- Staff Advisor: Rob Toomey
SIFMA Research
- Research Analyst: Justyna Podziemska
