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SIFMA today issued its quarterly government securities issuance and rates forecast for the fourth quarter of 2011. The full report is available at the following link: www.sifma.org/GovtForecast4Q2011/
Highlights of the forecast include:
- SIFMA forecasts total net Treasury bill, note and bond issuance to be $363.4 billion in the fourth quarter of 2011, approximately 55.1 percent above the net $234.3 billion issued in the third quarter and slightly above the $362.0 billion previously forecast in SIFMA’s 3Q’11 issuance survey (actuals include cash management balances).
- Survey respondents forecast that Treasury will issue $30.0 billion of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) in the fourth quarter, 18.3 percent below the $36.7 billion issued in the third quarter.
- Survey participants forecast a median $307.9 billion of Treasury coupon securities in the fourth quarter, 6.8 percent above 3Q’11’s net issuance of $288.3 billion. Gross coupon issuance is expected to total approximately $531 billion, 21.9 percent higher than the $435.5 billion issued in the prior quarter.
- Survey participants also forecast total gross coupon issuance by the four largest Federal agencies to be $274.0 billion in the fourth quarter. The projections reflect a 9.3 percent increase from the $250.8 billion issued by the agencies in third quarter, with much of the increase coming from Freddie Mac.
- Survey participants expect to see net bill issuance of $55.5 billion in the fourth quarter, a much different outcome than the $54.0 billion redeemed in the third quarter. The wide variance in responses received show there was no consensus on expectations for net bill issuance.
