SIFMA today issued its quarterly government securities issuance and rates forecast for the fourth quarter of 2012. The full report is available at the following link:http://www.sifma.org/GovtForecast4Q2012
Highlights of the forecast include:
SIFMA forecasts total net Treasury bill, note and bond issuance to be $249.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2012, approximately 7.5 percent above the net $232.0 billion issued in the third quarter of 2012 (actuals include cash management balances).
Survey respondents forecast that Treasury will issue $42.0 billion of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) in the fourth quarter of 2012, flat from $42.0 billion issued in the third quarter.
Survey participants forecast a median $236.5 billion of Treasury coupon securities for the fourth quarter, 11.4 percent higher than the third quarter’s net issuance of $212.4 billion. Gross coupon issuance is expected to total approximately $535 billion, 1.7 percent below the $544.0 billion issued in the third quarter.
Survey participants also forecast total gross coupon issuance by the four largest Federal agencies to increase to $210.5 billion in the fourth quarter. The projections reflect a 17.9 percent increase from the third quarter, with much of the forecasted increase coming from the Federal Home Loan Bank.
Survey participants expect to see net bill issuance of $13 billion in the fourth quarter, 33.7 percent below the net issuance of $19.6 in the third quarter. The wide variance in responses received shows there was no consensus on expectations for net bill issuance.
