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SIFMA today issued its quarterly government securities issuance and rates forecast for the third quarter of 2012. The full report is available at the following link: http://www.sifma.org/govtforecast3q2012/
Highlights of the forecast include:
SIFMA forecasts total net Treasury bill, note and bond issuance to be $264.5 in the third quarter of 2012, approximately 64.4 percent above the net $160.9 billion issued in the second quarter (actuals include cash management balances).
Survey respondents forecast that Treasury will issue $42.0 billion of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) in the third quarter, 15.3 percent above the $36.4 billion issued in the second quarter.
Survey participants forecast a median $237.5 billion of Treasury coupon securities for the third quarter, 20.6 percent higher than 2Q’12’s net issuance of $196.9 billion. Gross coupon issuance is expected to total approximately $543 billion, 20.2 percent above the $451.6 billion issued in the second quarter.
Survey participants also forecast total gross coupon issuance by the four largest Federal agencies to increase to $195 billion in the third quarter. The projections reflect a 7.4 percent increase from the second quarter, with much of the forecasted increase coming from Freddie Mac.
Survey participants expect to see net bill issuance of $27.0 billion in the third quarter, a much different result than the net $36.0 billion redeemed in the second quarter.The wide variance in responses received shows there was no consensus on expectations for net bill issuance.
