SIFMA today issued its quarterly government securities issuance and rates forecast for the second quarter of 2015. The full report is available at the following link: http://www.sifma.org/govtforecast2Q2015/.
Highlights of the forecast include:
SIFMA forecasts total net Treasury bill, note and bond issuance to be $38 billion in the second quarter of 2015, 70.2 percent lower than the $127.6 billion issued in the first quarter of 2015 (actuals include cash management balances).
Survey respondents forecast that Treasury will issue $38 billion of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) in the second quarter, up 2.7 percent from the $37 billion issued in the first quarter.
The median forecast for net issuance of Treasury coupon securities is $138 billion for the second quarter, 7.3 percent above the first quarter's net issuance of $128.7 billion. Survey participants expect to see net bill redemption of $100 billion in the second quarter, much higher than the net redemption of $1.1 billion in the first quarter.
While the forecast of coupon issuance was uniform among survey respondents, the expectations for the net bill issuance varied widely among the survey respondents, showing no consensus in the direction or the scale of net bill issuance in the second quarter.
Survey participants forecast total gross coupon issuance by the four largest Federal agencies to increase by 11.7 percent to $149 billion in the second quarter. The projections reflect a decrease in Freddie Mac's issuance of 33 percent and increases in the other three agencies issuance.
