SIFMA today issued its quarterly government securities issuance and rates forecast for the second quarter of 2014. The full report is available here.
Highlights of the forecast include:
- SIFMA forecasts total net Treasury bill, note and bond issuance to be $20.5 billion in the second quarter, much lower than the net $267.4 billion issued in the first quarter of 2014 (actuals include cash management balances).
- Survey respondents forecast that Treasury will issue $38 billion of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) in the second quarter, up 2.7 percent from the $37 billion issued in the first quarter.
- The median forecast for net issuance of Treasury coupon securities is $200.5 billion for the second quarter, 2 percent lower than the first quarter's net issuance of $204.7 billion.
- Survey participants expect to see net bill redemption of $180 billion in the second quarter, much lower than the net issuance of $60 billion in the first quarter. The expectations for the net bill redemption in the second quarter varied widely among the survey respondents, showing consensus in the direction but not in the scale of net bill redemption forecasts.
- Survey participants forecast total gross coupon issuance by the four largest Federal agencies to increase to $115 billion in the second quarter. The projections reflect a 26.7 percent increase from the first quarter, with much of the forecasted increase coming from Fannie Mae and Federal Home Loan Banks.