SIFMA today issued its quarterly government securities issuance and rates forecast for the first quarter of 2013. The full report is available at the following link: http://www.sifma.org/govtforecast1q2013/
Highlights of the forecast include:
SIFMA forecasts total net Treasury bill, note and bond issuance to be $358.5 billion in the first quarter of 2013, approximately 21 percent above the net $295.4 billion issued in the fourth quarter of 2012 (actuals include cash management balances).
Survey respondents forecast that Treasury will issue $37.0 billion of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) in the first quarter, 8.8 percent above the $34 billion issued in the fourth quarter.
Survey participants forecast a median $209.5 billion for the first quarter, 25.8 percent lower than the fourth quarter’s net issuance of $282.4 billion. Gross coupon issuance is expected to total approximately $538 billion, 15.1 percent below the $634.0 billion issued in the fourth quarter.
Survey participants also forecast total gross coupon issuance by the four largest Federal agencies to increase to $239 billion in the first quarter. The projections reflect a 71.3 percent increase from the fourth quarter, with much of the forecasted increase coming from Federal Home Loan Bank.
Survey participants expect to see net bill issuance of $149 billion in the first quarter, tenfold the net issuance of $13 billion in the fourth quarter. The wide variance in responses received shows there was no consensus on expectations for net bill issuance.