SIFMA today unveiled the results of its biannual survey of the chief U.S. economists from over 20 global and regional financial institutions. It includes expectations for key economic metrics and policy moves, including key findings such as 87% of survey respondents believing there will be no more rate hikes from the Fed, and the expectation of rate cuts in 2Q24.
“As we look out to the end of the year, so much of the outlook and the momentum of the economy will be predicated on three main factors: the resilience of the consumer, the performance of inflation, and the tough policy decisions made by both our monetary and fiscal officials,” said Dr. Lindsey Piegza, Ph.D., Chief Economist and Managing Director at Stifel Financial Corporation and Chair of SIFMA’s Economic Advisory Roundtable and Chair of SIFMA’s Economic Advisory Roundtable. “The U.S. economy is poised to remain positive but lose significant momentum from the third quarter’s outsized rise, likely slowing to less than 2% in the fourth quarter and slowing further into 2024, with the risk of recession still very real at 55-60%.
We highlight the following from the survey:
- Economic Forecasts (4Q23/4Q24)
- Real GDP: +2.5%/+0.7%
- Unemployment rate: +3.9%/+4.4%
- CPI: +3.3%/+2.2%
- Inflation Forecasts
- PCE by EOY 2023: 3.0-3.5%
- PCE by EOY 2024: 2.0-2.5%
- Fed Actions
- When will the Fed begin cutting rates?
- 2Q24 (46.7% of respondents)
- When will the Fed begin cutting rates?
The full report can be found here.
