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The U.S. presidential election on November 5 has driven short-term stock market volatility, with unpredictable voting outcomes and sharp policy differences between Republican and Democratic candidates fueling investor uncertainty. Recent polls from late October showing Trump leading Harris for the first time since the candidate switch have raised concerns about renewed U.S.-China trade tensions. These shifts are already reverberating through global markets, with potential implications for U.S. inflation, the Federal Reserve’s delayed rate cuts, and dollar appreciation, triggering early signs of foreign capital outflows from Asian equity markets.
SET Senior Executive Vice President Soraphol Tulayasathien said that the Thai bourse has gained momentum from favorable domestic factors, including a clearer political landscape following the new Prime Minister's appointment, stronger-than-expected Thai economic growth, and increased institutional investment driven by stock market-related measures. Domestic institutional buying rebounded to its highest level since March 2020, bolstered by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)’s decision to cut the benchmark rate by 25 basis points in a 5:2 split vote. Despite the SET Index’s gains for two consecutive months, the market faced valuation pressures as analysts revised down their 12-month forward earnings forecasts for listed companies.
Key highlights for October
- At the end of October 2024, the SET Index closed at 1,466.04 points, up 1.2 percent from the previous month, considered higher than the average return of other stock indices in the region. The SET index rose 3.5 percent from the end of 2023.
- Compared to the end of last year, Technology group emerged as the only industry group that outperformed the SET Index.
- SET’s and mai’s average daily trading value in October 2024 rose 16.0 percent YoY to THB 54.75 billion (approx. USD 1.62 billion). For the first 10 months of 2024, the daily trading value averaged at THB 47.33 billion, a decrease of 14.5 percent YoY.
- In October 2024, there were four newly listed companies, with Phuk Phak Praw Rak Mae pcl (OKJ), Medeze Group pcl (MEDEZE) and T.Man Pharmaceutical pcl (TMAN) listed on SET, and Thai Auto Tools and Die pcl (TATG) listed on mai.
- The Thai stock exchange’s forward P/E ratio at the end of October 2024 was 16.1 times, above the Asian stock markets’ average of 12.9 times. The historical P/E ratio stood at 17.8 times, exceeding the Asian stock markets’ average of 13.7 times.
- Dividend yield ratio at the end of October 2024 was 3.23 percent, higher than the Asian stock markets’ average of 3.10 percent.
Derivatives Market
- Thailand Futures Exchange (TFEX)’s daily trading volume in October 2024 averaged 509,144 contracts, down 28.0 percent from the previous month largely due to the decrease in trading volume of SET50 Index Futures and Single Stock Futures. For the first ten months of 2024, TFEX’s daily trading volume dropped 12.3 percent over the same period last year to 478,270 contracts mainly due to the decline in trading volume of Single Stock Futures and SET50 Index Futures.
