U.S. stocks and Bitcoin staged a strong rally in the wake of Donald Trump's presidential election victory. However, analysts have raised concerns over potential trade policy uncertainties ahead, warning that Trump’s follow-through on his campaign promise of severe trade tariffs against China could undermine the U.S. economy and compel investors to shift their portfolios toward safe-haven assets. If the disinflation progress is hampered by the escalating trade tensions, the Federal Reserve may have to delay its interest rate reductions to curb the risk of inflation resurgence. This more restrictive monetary policy stance could heighten volatility across global financial and capital markets over the next 1-2 years.
SET Senior Executive Vice President Soraphol Tulayasathien noted that the Thai economy in 2017 during Trump 1.0 administration was stronger than today, as evidenced by the period’s higher GDP growth and current account surplus. Nonetheless, Thailand’s GDP expanded 3.0 percent in the third quarter of 2024, driving the nine-month growth to 2.3 percent which was above analyst expectation. In parallel, the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) also revised upward its full-year growth projection to 2.6 percent on the back of tourism recovery, export growth, and public investment expansion. While listed companies post robust revenue growth in the first nine months of 2024, declining oil prices and narrower refining margins weighed down net profits of the oil and petrochemical sectors.
Key highlights for November
- At the end of November 2024, the SET Index closed at 1,427.54 points, down 2.6 percent from the previous month, moving in line with the regional peers. The SET index rose 0.8 percent from the end of 2023.
- Compared to the end of last year, Technology group emerged as the only industry group that outperformed the SET Index.
- SET’s and Market for Alternative Investment (mai)’s average daily trading value in November 2024 decreased 3.4 percent YoY to THB 44.26 billion (approx. USD 1.29 billion). For the first 11 months of 2024, the daily trading value averaged at THB 47.05 billion, a decrease of 13.5 percent YoY. However, local institutional investors’ trading value has risen for two consecutive months and accounted for more than 10 percent of total trading value.
- There were three newly listed companies, with Specialty Natural Products pcl (SNPS) listed on SET, and MPJ Logistics pcl (MPJ) and Interroyal Engineering pcl (IROYAL) listed on mai.
- The Thai stock exchange’s forward P/E ratio at the end of November 2024 was 16.3 times, above the Asian stock markets’ average of 12.6 times. The historical P/E ratio stood at 19.3 times, exceeding the Asian stock markets’ average of 14.3 times.
- Dividend yield ratio at the end of November 2024 was 3.34 percent, higher than the Asian stock markets’ average of 3.10 percent.
Derivatives Market
- Thailand Futures Exchange (TFEX)’s daily trading volume in November 2024 averaged 487,638 contracts, down 4.2 percent from the previous month largely due to the lower trading volume of Single Stock Futures. For the first 11 months of 2024, TFEX’s average daily trading volume dropped 10.7 percent over the same period last year to 479,145 contracts mainly due to the decline in trading volume of Single Stock Futures and SET50 Index Futures.
