Bilateral U.S. trade agreements concluded in mid-July 2025 with reciprocal tariffs finalized at 19 percent for Indonesia and 20 percent for Vietnam have established a major regional benchmark. This development has led to consensus among analysts that Thailand will likely secure similar terms and conditions in its tariff negotiation with the U.S. and that such an agreement will particularly benefit industries with high foreign revenue exposure. Meanwhile, the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) revised Thailand’s 2025 GDP growth forecast from 2.1 percent to 2.2 percent. These favorable catalysts drove the SET Index to rally in July 2025 with a surge of 14.0 percent from the previous month.
SET Senior Executive Vice President Soraphol Tulayasathien noted that the weakening Dollar Index in July 2025 drove renewed emerging market inflows across Asian equity markets as foreign funds rebalanced their portfolios. The Thai stock market particularly benefitted from compelling valuations and baht appreciation, a factor which typically attracts foreign fund inflows. The SET Index maintained its strong upward trajectory with foreign net buying recorded on 14 days out of 21 trading days in July 2025, marking the first month of foreign net buying since September 2024, with aggregate net buying of THB 16.12 billion (approx. USD493.12 million).
The FPO's upward GDP revision was based on assumptions that Thailand's economic expansion would continue to be driven by private consumption, public investment, and inbound tourism, with visitor arrivals projected to reach 34.5 million. Export growth forecast was significantly upgraded to 5.5 percent from the previous 2.3 percent estimate, driven by accelerated shipments in the first half of 2025 as exporters sought to front-load deliveries to mitigate risks associated with trade wars. However, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 9-2 to maintain the benchmark rate in the 4.25 – 4.5 percent range for the fifth consecutive meeting. The statement by the Federal Reserve (Fed) chair reflected elevated uncertainty over tax policies and potential impact on both inflation and U.S. labor markets, sustaining the central bank's cautious monetary policy stance. Thailand-Cambodia border disputes continue to represent regional geopolitical risk factors.
Key highlights for July 2025
- At the end of July 2025, the SET Index surged 14.0 percent MoM to close at 1,242.35 points, significantly outpacing most regional exchanges and reducing the YTD decrease to 11.3 percent.
- Compared to the end of 2024, industry groups that outperformed the SET Index were Technology, Financials, Resources, and Industrials.
- SET’s and Market for Alternative Investment (mai)’s average daily trading value rose 12.1 percent YoY to THB 42.62 billion, with a YTD average daily trading value of THB 41.97 billion, decreasing 5.0 percent YoY. Foreign investors continued to dominate trading activity, accounting for 50.68 percent of July’s total trading value which was the highest among all investor categories. They registered a net buying position of THB 16.12 billion, marking the first month of net buying since September 2024.
- The Thai stock exchange’s forward P/E ratio at the end of July 2025 was 13.8 times, above the Asian stock markets’ average of 13.0 times. The historical P/E ratio stood at 14.3 times, lower than the Asian stock markets’ average of 14.8 times.
- Dividend yield ratio at the end of July 2025 was 3.95 percent, higher than the Asian stock markets’ average of 3.17 percent.
Derivatives Market
- At the end of July 2025, Thailand Futures Exchange (TFEX)’s daily trading volume averaged 355,290 contracts, down 19.8 percent from the previous month largely due to the lower trading volume of Single Stock Futures and SET50 Index Futures. The YTD average daily trading volume in 2025 was 425,984 contracts, down 11.9 percent due to the decline in trading volume of Single Stock Futures and Gold Online Futures.
