The International Monetary Fund (IMF) trimmed its 2025 global GDP forecast amid concerns over geopolitical conflicts and economic decoupling that could heighten volatility and dampen global economic recovery. This echoes the Federal Reserve (Fed)'s outlook as the Fed, despite its decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the mid-December 2024 meeting, signaled that additional easing might not come easily — a stance that triggered short-term negative reactions in the stock markets.
SET Senior Executive Vice President Soraphol Tulayasathien said that the SET Index ended 2024 largely unchanged from the previous year and the market performance notably improved in the second half. Analysts remained optimistic about Thailand’s economic growth in 2024 and 2025, pointing to exports and tourism as key growth engines despite increasing uncertainties ahead. Adding to the positive outlook was Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra's briefing on the government’s three-month performance review on December 12, 2024 where she unveiled 11 key policies under the two-pronged campaign "2025 Empowering Thais: A Real Possibility" which are expected to benefit various sectors in the stock market.
Key highlights for December
- At the end of December 2024, the SET Index closed at 1,400.21 points, gaining 7.6 percent in the second half of the year while recording only a 1.1 percent decline YoY.
- Compared to the end of 2023, industry groups that outperformed the SET Index were Technology and Financials.
- SET’s and Market for Alternative Investment (mai)’s average daily trading value in December 2024 increased 1.8 percent YoY to THB 40.70 billion (approx. USD 1.37 billion). The full-year 2024 average daily trading value was THB 46.55 billion, down 12.7 percent YoY. However, local institutional investors' trading proportion demonstrated an upward trend, staying above 10 percent of total trading value for three consecutive months.
- There were two newly listed companies, with Nakornthon Hospital pcl (NKT) listed on SET and INSPIRE IVF pcl (IVF) listed on mai.
- The Thai stock exchange’s forward P/E ratio at the end of December 2024 was 16.0 times, above the Asian stock market’s average of 12.8 times. The historical P/E ratio stood at 18.8 times, exceeding the Asian stock market’s average of 14.6 times.
- Dividend yield ratio at the end of December 2024 was 3.45 percent, higher than the Asian stock markets’ average of 3.17 percent.
Derivatives Market
- Thailand Futures Exchange (TFEX)’s daily trading volume in December 2024 averaged 538,570 contracts, up 10.4 percent from the previous month largely due to the higher trading volume of Single Stock Futures and SET50 Index Futures. TFEX’s average daily trading volume in 2024 dropped 9.2 percent YoY to 483,772 contracts mainly due to the decline in trading volume of Single Stock Futures and SET50 Index Futures.
