Real gross domestic product grew by 3.9 percent* in the first quarter of 2004 (slightly below the 4.1-percent rate in 4Q 2003), and similar results are estimated for the second quarter this year, according to the latest Research Reports by Frank Fernandez, the Securities Industry Association’s chief economist. Growth is expected to steadily decelerate, reflecting the dissipation of past fiscal stimulus and later, the lagged effect of the gradual withdrawal of accommodative monetary policy. Real GDP growth of 4.3 percent is projected for full-year 2004, up from 3.1 percent last year, while non-agricultural employment in 2004 is expected to rise 1.2 percent (following a 0.2-percent decline in 2003). SIA forecasts 2005’s real GDP will rise 2.6 percent, with the deceleration principally reflecting the impact of higher interest rates and prices for fuel and other primary products. Unemployment in 2005, SIA projects, will stabilize at 5.5 percent. This issue also includes an overview of the Regulation National Market Structure proposals and
testimony delivered to Congress on the U.S.-EU Financial Markets Dialogue by SIA Chairman Richard E. Thornburgh, the chief risk officer for Credit Suisse Group and a member of the Credit Suisse Group Executive Board.
The report: http://www.sia.com/research/pdf/RsrchRprtVol5-7.pdf
