During July the traded volume in Rofex totalled u$s 2,643 millions, surpassing by a 41% the volume traded in the same period of 2006 and by a 10% its previous historical record of u$s 2,412 millions. The agitated week registered in the world’s financial markets, which had a stronger impact on the local market, affected the future dollar market, where u$s 1,144 millions were negotiated.
On Wednesday, after the black Tuesday that shook markets worldwide, the volume in Rofex reached u$s 373 millions, a record that was only surpassed on December 16, 2005, when the debt cancellation with the IMF was announced. Although on Thursday markets breathe a little easier, they remained unstable until Friday: on Thursday the implied volatility in call options for August reached average values higher than 4.5%. The close of that trading session (Thursday) showed spreads between positions higher than the usual ones, which made implied rates in US dollar futures reach values that were unthinkable weeks ago. In fact, in May, US dollar as of year end traded at $3.114 and the difference between the most distant position and the longest one did not exceed the 0.75%. At Thursday 26´s close, the longest position quoted at 2.96% above July US dollar, showing implied rates for year-end of 8.45%. On Friday’s trading session, things calmed down as the wholesale market US dollar stabilized at about $3.12 and rates fell.
At yesterday’s close, interest rates returned to previously handled values, BCRA 3500 reference US dollar fixed at $ 3.1195, August short position fixed at $3.1540 and December at $3.2150.
The US currency ended the month with a 0.90% rise. Meanwhile, no less than 60 days ago, the US currency was traded in the wholesale market at $3.07.
Faced with the new scenario of uncertainty, future markets offer those who wish to keep a US dollar yield, to keep the price of their imports, exports or simply to protect the value of their inversion in US dollars for future trades.
