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Review Of Winnipeg Commodity Exchange New Crop Price Trends

Date 07/05/2002

On April 24, 2002, Statistics Canada released its seeding intentions report. Since then, other market information has been released and is subsequently being reflected in new crop prices. The following is a summary of new crop price trends since the release of Statistic Canada's seeding intentions report. New crop price trends will be one of the significant factors affecting this spring's final planting decisions.

After trading at levels well above those seen in the previous year, new crop feed wheat (Oct 02 contract) prices declined during the month of April to end the month at near the same price levels seen one year ago. On April 30, 2002, the Oct 02 feed wheat contract reached a contract low of $130.50 per tonne.

During the winter months, new crop western barley (Oct 02 contract) prices have also traded at levels above those seen in the previous year. However, during the month of April the Oct 02 western barley contract trended downward, establishing a new contract low on April 26, 2002 of $123.00 per tonne, a level not seen in the previous year. It should be noted that the recent announcement by the Alberta government regarding plans to introduce a policy restricting the movement of feed grains containing fusarium graminearum into the province may have contributed to the observed decline in feed grain futures prices.

In contrast to the feed grain prices, new crop oilseed values are continuing to trade at levels above those seen a year ago. During the month of April though, the Nov 02 canola contract price decreased approximately $10.00 per tonne to end the month at $321.70 per tonne. The Nov 02 flaxseed contract ended the month up slightly at $316.00 per tonne.

The Nov 02 canola minus flaxseed spread ended the month of April with canola at a $5.70 per tonne premium to flaxseed. A year ago, canola was trading at approximately a $20.00 per tonne premium to flaxseed. The Oct 02 wheat minus barley spread ended the month with wheat at a $5.00 per tonne premium to barley, compared to a year ago when wheat and barley futures were trading near the same levels.

Looking at oilseed new crop prices compared to feed grain new crop prices, generally the oilseeds have been trading at approximately $30.00 per tonne more compared to the premium seen a year ago.