The
"Rising prices for major commodities, especially corn and soybeans, appear to be leading the change in producers' improved financial outlook," said James Mintert, the barometer's principal investigator and director of
The Farm Financial Performance Index improved to a reading of 95, up 8 points from March and 12 points higher than in January and February. As Mintert suggests, much of this could be attributed to the strengthened commodity prices. For example, Eastern Corn Belt cash prices for corn in mid-April rose more than 10% above their mid-March level while bids for fall delivery of 2022 crop corn climbed 20% over the same period. Soybean prices rose as well. Near-term delivery prices for soybeans rose about 7% from mid-March to mid-April while elevator bids for fall delivery of new crop soybeans climbed 5% over the one-month span.
Even as commodity prices have strengthened, producers continue to say higher input costs are the top concern for their farming operation. In April, 42% of producers chose higher input costs as their biggest concern, which was more than twice as many who chose government policies (21%) or lower output prices (19%). In April, 60% of survey respondents said they expect input prices to rise by 30% over the next 12 months. This compares to an average of 37% of respondents who said they were expecting a cost increase of this magnitude when the same question was posed in the
When asked specifically for their expectations for 2023 crop input prices compared to prices paid for 2022 crop inputs, 36% of respondents said they expect prices to rise 10% or more and 21% of crop producers said input price rises of 20% or more are likely. The war in
Crop input challenges extend beyond their inflated cost to their availability. In April, 34% of producers said they experienced some difficulty in purchasing inputs for the 2022 crop season, up from 27% in March. In a follow-up question, producers who said they had some difficulty obtaining inputs said that herbicides (30% of respondents) were most problematic followed closely by farm machinery parts (27%), fertilizer (26%), and insecticides (17%). In a related question, 11% of crop producers said they received notice an input supplier would not be able to deliver one or more crop inputs they had already purchased for use in 2022. Of those, herbicide availability was the top problem reported.
Despite an overall improved financial performance outlook, the Farm Capital Investment Index remains at its all-time low. Supply chain problems remain a key reason many producers feel now is not a good time for making large investments in their farming operation. For example, just over 40% of producers said their farm machinery purchase plans were impacted by low machinery inventories. The rising cost of all inputs, including machinery, buildings, and grain bins, is likely another factor causing producers to say now is not a good time for large investments.
Read the full Ag Economy Barometer report at https://purdue.ag/agbarometer. The site also offers additional resources – such as past reports, charts and survey methodology – and a form to sign up for monthly barometer email updates and webinars.
Each month, the
The Ag Economy Barometer, Index of Current Conditions and Index of Future Expectations are available on the
