Platts Survey of Analysts
- Cane crush: 13.10 million metric tons (mt)
- Sugar production: 399,000 mt
- Total ethanol production: 637,000 liter (ltr)
- Hydrous ethanol production: 450,000 ltr
- Anhydrous ethanol production: 187,000 ltr
- Sugar mix: 31.43 %
- Ethanol mix: 68.57 %
Sugarcane crush volumes in the key Center-South region of Brazil in the first half of April are expected to total 13.10 million mt, with mills focused on ethanol production, a Platts survey of analysts showed Monday.
The Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (UNICA) will release its bi-monthly sugarcane harvest data on Tuesday.
The wider range of analysts' advance expectations for cane crush spanned from 10.2 million mt to 18.3 million mt.
Analysts expect sugar mills to have focused on ethanol production, with ethanol representing 68.57% of the cane crush in the April 1- 15 period, with sugar at 31.43%.
Cane yield measured by Total Recoverable Sugar (or ATR in Portuguese) was estimated by Platts sugar analysis and forecasting unit Kingsman* at 105.5 kg/mt.
Analysts anticipate the following: Sugar production of 399,000 mt, total ethanol output of 637,000 liters, including 450,000 liters of hydrous and 187,000 liter of anhydrous ethanol.
The strong focus on hydrous ethanol production is attributed to higher electricity prices from cogeneration, as well as more competitive prices at the pumps, which boosted demand.
Since the February reinstatement of Brazil's Cide tax on gasoline, hydrous ethanol consumption has boomed, increasing its share of total automotive fuel demand in Brazil to 29%, the highest since February 2011, according to data from the Brazilian Petroleum Agency.
According to Platts price assessments, VHP raw sugar in Central-South Brazil was assessed at a 10 points premium to New York 11, on Monday, April 27, up 3 points from Friday’s close. The New York 11 was assessed at 13.19 cents per pound (ct/lb) at 1630 GMT. Platts assessed T2 ethanol, on FOB Rotterdam basis, at Eur559/cubic meters, up Eur22.75 from Friday’s close. Platts price assessments are underpinned by structured, rigorous methodologies publicly available on the Platts website.
Visit the Platts and Platts’ Kingsman websites for more information on sugar and biofuels.
Interviews may be arranged with the following sugar experts via Platts Communications: Platts Sugar Pricing Specialists: Nicole Monteiro de Castro, Darren Stetzels, Beatriz Pupo, Reinout Geyssens; and Platts Sugar and Ethanol Analyst: Claudiu Covrig. If you would like to receive this on a regular basis, please select Agriculture at this alerts sign-up link.
*Kingsman is Platts agricultural business unit, acquired in 2012.
**In its bi-monthly cane harvest update, UNICA publishes a range of sugarcane harvest production metrics for Brazil’s Center-South region, also broken down into São Paulo and other states.
