1. Good morning and happy 50th anniversary to the SAS, and to everyone here celebrating this anniversary.
- SAS started with sixteen founding members in 1976, and has now grown to a professional body of close to 1,000 members.
2. The first 50 years at the SAS was about establishing a trusted profession and building strong foundations, but the next 50 years will be different. It will be about something even more demanding: helping Singapore and Asia navigate a world where risks are more complex, more interconnected, and more consequential.
3. That is why this year’s theme, “Beating the Odds: Redefining the Risk”, is spot on.
4. I have a twelve year old and she loves watching the Hunger Games, which has a famous line: “May the odds be ever in your favour”. The heroine is Katniss Everdeen and she survived the brutal Hunger Games, with her friends and fellow citizens. It is similar to how our improbable nation had beat the odds 61 years ago.
5. In beating the odds, Singapore did not get here by chance. Our pioneers, the first generation, calculated the risks, planned with discipline, built our reserves and adapted continuously. The same ethos sits at the heart of the actuarial profession. This is evident because actuaries do not leave society’s safety to chance. At the core of actuaries’ work, they price risks, they stress test the system and they build the resilience that keeps our financial ecosystem secure.
Risk is being redefined
6. So what are the factors defining the risks today? It’s an important question to ask. Because what brought us here today will never get us to where we want to be in the future. The odds are changing. The assumptions are being tested. Risks, which were once isolated are now interconnected and events that were once considered rare are now occurring with more frequency. The operating environment is changing rapidly.
7. And the change today is defined by three factors: new tools, new terrain, and new needs.
8. First, new tools. We wax lyrical about AI and advanced analytics, which is changing every single day. What was cutting edge in the technology sector many years ago is now de rigueur in any organisation. AI and advanced analytics are changing how we conduct underwriting, manage claims, and engage customers. It is also increasingly embedded in how insurers operate.
9. Second, new terrain. I was from the Ministry of Trade and Industry. Having been in the midst of trade negotiations and discussions around multinational trade architecture, I have seen how trade has fragmented, how supply chains have shifted, and how global geopolitical tensions are now redefining the global trade, economic landscape as well as how countries interact with one another. Putting on my Monetary Authority of Singapore hat, these do affect investment portfolios and long-term planning assumptions.
- It also raises the bar for insurers, for stress testing and long-term financial resilience.
10. Third, new needs. People’s needs are evolving alongside demographics shifts and consumer expectations.
- We are growing, Singapore may look very advanced, but one big challenge that we are facing is a rapidly aging population. As people live longer, particularly in Singapore and parts of Asia, they need retirement adequacy, they need healthcare and long-term financial security.
- Customers’ profiles and needs have changed. They expect products and services to be more affordable and accessible.
- They need a profession that is technically strong, forward-looking and adaptable.
Role of Actuaries
11. How do we address these?
12. First, we need to master the new tools. In the Hunger Games, Katniss Everdeen had to master archery to become a skilled archer. In the same vein, Singapore has always had to do so, by embracing new technology. From the computerisation drive in the 1980s to today's drive in AI, where we have a national AI strategy. Singapore must always be at the forefront to ensure that even as these technologies come in, we equip our people to harness that technology. Not have the technology overtake or replace you, but to use the energy and the technology to augment what you do every single day.
- Actuaries are already mastering AI to work smarter in the areas of data analytics, research, underwriting, pricing, and valuation. And this allows them to model and test a far wider range of scenarios than ever before.
- As these models become deeply embedded, actuaries are a vital bridge, translating complex AI outputs into clear insights. Taking the AI inputs, they evaluate and analyse these outputs and make it into something actionable.
- Actuaries ensure that the AI tools are robust, explainable and appropriately governed by doing a few things – challenging assumptions, identifying biases and testing for unexpected outcomes.
- By combining the use of technology with professional judgment, actuaries do something very important, which is to strengthen trust in rapidly changing technology.
13. Second, we must master the new terrain. In ‘Catching Fire’, Katniss Everdeen found herself on the terrain. The first terrain was static. However, as she went into different parts, the terrain shifted and the hazards shifted. They were all moving. Similarly, we have to move with the times just as the heroine in Hunger Games has to move. Singapore has shifted according to how these terrains have shifted. We’ve navigated the shifting geopolitical terrain for over 61 years, by diversifying partnerships and building long-term fiscal and physical buffers. We must be nimble, pragmatic and adapt to the changing terrain.
- Today, actuarial work must shift from just projecting past trends to preparing for tomorrow and longer term uncertainties.
- Because historical data is not enough anymore, actuaries will need to do scenario analysis and stress testing. These are key to the profession as it evolves.
- For example, climate change has resulted in more frequent weather events. By stress-testing portfolios and reserves against severe yet plausible events under different climate change scenarios, and going beyond historical experience, actuaries can help insurers rigorously evaluate long-term risks and maintain long-term resilience against the unexpected.
14. Third, we must put people’s needs first. In the Hunger Games, Katniss did not just fight and navigate the terrain, she would always put people first. That is her raison d’erte. She protected her sister and other vulnerable citizens. Singapore’s economic progress has also always been about putting and placing our people first. In fact, we would not have been able to come so far from 61 years ago if we did not do so.
- Actuaries’ craft is technical but ultimately about people. By staying attuned to demographics and understanding your customers' needs, actuaries are accomplishing their life's mission and purpose.
- Beyond building sound pricing models, actuaries help insurers deliver socially valuable, inclusive, and financially robust solutions.
- But increasingly, they will need to tailor insurance products for a growing silver customer base, while designing products for all segments of society, including persons with disabilities and persons with mental health conditions.
- They can also design products that encourage sound risk management behaviours among policyholders, which hopefully will lead to fewer claims, lower premiums and better outcomes.
- Actuaries can also support a clean energy transition by designing insurance products that facilitate the rollout of new climate technologies that are constantly evolving over time.
15. Across all three areas, the important part is the ability to communicate clearly, turning actuarial insights into actions that benefit people. Boards, senior management and policymakers need clear, relevant and actionable actuarial advice. The ability to explain clear pay-offs, uncertainties, and clarify the trade-offs is becoming just as important as the ability to quantify risk.
Conclusion
16. Let me close.
17. No actuary or insurer can navigate these shifts alone. That is why institutions like the SAS and gatherings like the Asian Actuarial Conference matter. They bring the profession together to learn, to challenge assumptions, and to build the capabilities needed for the future.
18. When we look at the next 50 years, we will not passively hope that the odds will forever fall in our favour. Whether in stories like the Hunger Games or Singapore’s improbable 61 year journey into a probable nation, real resilience comes from mastering new tools, adapting to an ever shifting terrain, and staying anchored to our mission - to protect the needs of the people. That is how we redefine the risk and how we will beat the odds.
19. On that note, I wish all of you a fruitful conference and congratulations to SAS on your 50th birthday. Thank you.
