MNI PINCH - Probabilty Of INterest rate CHange

Following UK trigger of Article 50 and the Reuters ECB's source story, MNI PINCH sees markets pricing in a lower probability of interest
rates rising in both UK and Eurozone. Please see below MNI PINCH calculation of probabilities of interest rate change:

FED: MNI PINCH still see little change since Monday in market pricing of the path of interest rate rises despite hawkish comments from Eric Rosengren and
John Williams on Wednesday evening. MNI PINCH still see no chance of a 25bp rate hike at the next meeting on May 3, around 45% in June, and in July markets are
pricing in a 55% chance of a hike. Next full 25bp rate hike remains priced in for Nov 2017, according to MNI PINCH calculations.

ECB: MNI PINCH now calculating around 49% chance of a 10bp rate hike in December 2017, down sharply from 77% seen on Monday following Reuters ECB's source story
and lower than expected pan German Flash inflation data released earlier today. 

BoE: In the UK, MNI PINCH sees markets pricing in a slightly lower possibility of rise in interest rates following trigger of Article 50. MNI PINCH calculates
markets pricing a 1 in 3 chance of a 25bp rate hike in November down from 42.5% Monday and a 65% chance of a rate hike by May 2018 down from 80%.

Source:MNI/Tradition/Bloomberg

Source:MNI/Tradition/Bloomberg

Source: MNI/ICAP/Bloomberg

Source: MNI/ICAP/Bloomberg

Source: MNI/ICAP/Bloomberg

Source: MNI/ICAP/Bloomberg