Following both the FED and BoE rates decisions last week,
MNI PINCH calculation of market pricing of interest rate change are below:
FED: Following the FOMC decision to raise rates last Wednesday MNI PINCH
sees market pricing no chance of a 25bp rate hike at the next meeting on May 3, a
50% chance of a hike on Jun 14 and a 63% of a hike on Jul 26. The next full 25bp
rate hike is priced in for Sep, with a further 25bp rate hike seen in Mar 2018.
ECB: MNI PINCH see pricing of rate hikes at the ECB have risen since last
week, with the market now pricing in a 75% chance of a 10bp deposit rate hike in
December, up from 60% seen last Monday.
BoE: In the UK, MNI PINCH see market is now pricing in a 44% chance of a
25bp rate hike in Nov 2016, up from 25% last Monday as Kristen Forbes calls for
a 25bp rate hike due to rising inflation and better growth, while there was some
hawkish undertones from some other members in the MPC minutes as well.
Source: MNI/Tradition/Bloomberg
Source: MNI/Tradition/Bloomberg
Source: MNI/ICAP/Bloomberg
Source: MNI/ICAP/Bloomberg
Source: MNI/ICAP/Bloomberg
Source: MNI/ICAP/Bloomberg
