Key Points – August Report
The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, all but stood still in August. The indicator inched up 0.1 points to 52.2, following the June/July slide which saw the Chicago Report™ fall to the lowest level since August 2020.
- The only sub-indicators to fall were employment and supplier deliveries, while prices paid was unchanged from the previous month. Supplier deliveries eased to the lowest level since July 2020 with just over a quarter of firms seeing deliveries slow.
- Production strengthened by 6.7 points to 54.9 in August, close to recovering July’s 7.0-point. Underpinned by more shipping days in August, orders saw robust production over the month.
- New Orders followed a similar trajectory, improving by 4.4 points to 48.9. Fourth quarter outlooks appeared positive. Long-time lead businesses continued to struggle and cited cancellations.
- Order Backlogs grew by 6.1 points to 54.5 in August.
- Employment edged down 1.5 points to 54.6, implying little change in the tightness of the labor market.
- Supplier Deliveries declined 5.0 points to 62.1. Stockpiling in the first quarter of the year likely exasperated delivery issues.
- Inventories saw the largest rebound this month, bouncing back 13.9 points, reversing the July plunge. The index remains 7.5 points below May’s near 50-year high.
- Prices Paid held firm in August, all but unchanged at 81.8, with price pressures remaining acute.
This month we asked firms “Do you see the prospect of slowing global / U.S. growth impacting demand for your product?” Responses were significantly varied, over a third (34.9%) expected a downturn, the same as expecting unchanged demand. Meanwhile, 16.3% of respondents were already seeing a notable downturn
