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Key Points – November Report
The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, fell to 61.8 in November, the lowest reading since February, driven by a slow-down in new orders.
Among the five main indicators, Inventories saw the largest increase, followed by Production. All other indicators dropped compared to October, with Order Backlogs seeing the largest decline.
Inventories rose to 59.6, the highest since Fall 2018. Some firms reported stockpiling to get ahead of further supply chain disruptions and counteract logistical issues.
Order Backlogs dropped to 60.8, 6 points below the 12- month average, as firms reported a reduction in the size of incoming orders.
Supplier Deliveries declined slightly, however multiple survey respondents reported November deliveries to be the slowest ever.
Prices Paid declined to 93.8, but still only just shy of October’s multi-decade high with ongoing higher costs for production materials reported.
Employment slipped to 51.6, reversing the October gain, and now hovers around the 12-month average as firms struggled to find qualified workers to meet vacancies.
Production recovered slightly in November, following three straight falls from August to October. New Orders fell back to their February level of 58.2.
This month’s special question asked, “Are you seeing any easing up in the supply chain blockages?” The majority (64.9%) said no, whilst 24.3% said somewhat.
The second question asked, “Are you managing to pass the higher costs of doing business onto customers?” A total 78.4% of respondents were at least partially managing to pass costs onwards, with 21.6% unable to.
