The December Chicago Business BarometerTM was revised by -0.8 point to 42.7 in December from 43.5, due to the annual seasonal adjustment recalculation.
Growth in the first half of the year was slightly weaker than previously estimated as the Barometer in Q1 was revised 0.7 point lower led by weaker New Orders and Production indicators. In contrast, activity in the second and third quarters was a touch stronger than previously estimated. March saw the largest downward revision, with the Barometer revised lower 1.4 point to 46.2 from its initial estimate, while May recorded the highest upward revision of 1.7 points to 42.2. The Barometer remained below 50 for 25 consecutive months and, excluding November 2023, it has been in contraction territory since September 2022. On a quarterly basis, Q2 2025 was revised higher to 42.3 (+0.5 point) and Q3 was revised to 43.3 (+0.2 point), while Q4 was unrevised at 41.2.
In December, Production saw the largest downward revision (-2.2 points) followed by New Orders (-0.4 point). Order Backlogs were revised higher (+1.9 points) and Employment was also revised up (+1.5 points). Supplier Deliveries were unchanged in December and was the only Barometer component in expansionary territory, where it has been for 11 consecutive months. All three Buying Policy indicators were also revised lower in December. Inventories were revised up (+0.3 point).
Prices Paid expanded at a faster pace than previously estimated in the second half of the year, with the indicator revised higher by 2.3 points December.
Overall, data from the Chicago Business Barometer™ survey saw minor revisions. All series in the Chicago Report™ are seasonally adjusted by the US Census X-13 procedure and the seasonal adjustment factors are recalculated annually every January.
