The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, fell 0.9 points to 40.6 in September. The index now sits 0.2 points above the June reading, having now almost fully unwound July’s 6.7 point rise. The index has now been below 50 for twenty-two consecutive months.
The decline was driven by another sharp drop in New Orders, alongside declines in Supplier Deliveries and Employment. These dynamics were partly offset by rises in Production and Order Backlogs.
- New Orders dropped 7.0 points, leaving the index just above the year-to-date low seen in May.
- Supplier Deliveries realigned 6.4 points to the lowest level since January. However, the index has remained above 50 for eight consecutive months now.
- Employment eased 4.1 points, bringing the index to its lowest reading since June 2009. September saw the largest proportion of respondents reporting smaller employment levels since the immediate aftermath of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.
- Production rose 3.8 points. This was the first increase in the index after five consecutive declines.
- Order Backlogs increased 3.3 points.
- Inventories weakened 7.5 points.
- Prices Paid moderated 0.4 points to the lowest level since January. The index remains above last year’s average.
The survey ran from September 1 to September 15.
