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The MNI China Consumer Indicator rose for the fourth consecutive month in November, led by increased optimism about the future for the economy, following the recent pick-up in economic activity.
The Consumer Indicator rose to 96.6 in November from 95.7 in October, the highest since June. It is possible that the third plenum of the Chinese Communist party’s 18th Central Committee, which announced a number of measures to reform the economy, boosted consumer optimism. While many respondents were surveyed before the conclusion of the meeting, some were interviewed after it ended.
Optimism about Business Conditions in a Year’s time rose to the highest level for nearly a year and a half while expectations for Business Conditions in Five Years’ time increased to the highest since June.
Current Personal Finances improved slightly, and consumers felt it was the best time to buy a large consumer durable since March. The only component to fall this month was Expected Personal Finances.
The Employment Indicator fell slightly for the first time in four months, but remained above the 100 breakeven level for the third consecutive month and up from the summer lull.
Consumers were more dissatisfied with the current level of prices, although the indicator measuring inflation expectations eased for the fourth consecutive month.
The indicator measuring expectations for the future level of house prices continued to rise in November, having fallen in October, causing an increase in the Real Estate Investment Indicator.
Commenting on the data, MNI Indicators Chief Economist Philip Uglow said, “This was the fourth consecutive rise in consumer confidence, a welcome pick-up from the two year low seen in July.”
“The largely positive reaction to the reform announcements, following the third plenum of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee, could further support confidence ahead,” he added.
