The December Chicago Business Barometer was revised up to 67.8 from 67.6 previously, following the annual seasonal adjustment recalculation.
Growth was revised higher in the first, third and fourth quarters but a downward revision to second quarter growth was enough to deliver an aggregate 0.3 point drop in the Barometer over 2017.
June saw the largest revision, with the Barometer revised down 2.1 points to 63.6 from its initial estimate of 65.7. Activity in the second half of the year was revised higher by 1.3 points, driven by a 1.7 point upward revision to the Barometer in November. Overall, the revisions suggest economic activity ran at a slightly softer pace over first six months of the year but that growth over H2 2017 was higher than previously estimated.
Of the five components that make up the headline Barometer it was New Orders that saw the biggest upward revision over H2 2017, revised up by 4.3 points. Production (+0.9), Employment (+0.1) and Backlogs (+0.2) were also revised higher over the second half of 2017 while the Supplier Deliveries component was revised down by 1.3 points. Inventories, which does not contribute to the Barometer, was revised higher by 1.7 points over H2 2017 but lower by 1.1 points over the entire course of 2017.
All series in the Chicago Report are seasonally adjusted by the Census Bureau’s X-12 procedure and the seasonal adjustment factors are recalculated annually every January.
