Today, the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) published the results of its Economic Advisory Roundtable biannual survey.
The Roundtable is comprised of the chief U.S. economists from over 20 global and regional financial institutions. The survey assesses the current economic landscape, tariff policy, inflation and monetary policy, the economic outlook, and more. The Roundtable expects GDP growth to slow to around 0.9% Q4/Q4 in 2025 from 2.5% in 2024, before recovering to 1.9% Q4/Q4 in 2026, according to the median forecast.
“The economy has downshifted sharply since the second half of 2024, as big changes in tariffs, trade policy, immigration, Federal tax, and spending policies are taking center stage while the Federal Reserve and monetary policy takes an unfamiliar backseat,” said Scott Anderson, Ph.D., Co-Chair of the SIFMA Economist Roundtable and Chief U.S. Economist and Managing Director at BMO. “Until the dust settles – especially around tariff policy and interest rates – the economic and inflation uncertainty they generate will remain a big part of our economic and financial future. Although recession risks remain elevated, panelists don’t expect tariffs to reach their heights seen on April 2nd and aren’t likely to trigger an outright recession this year or next.”
Key Takeaways:
- Monetary Policy: 75% of our economists expect one or more rate cuts by the end of 2025 for a total decrease of roughly 50bps. The median forecaster looks for the midpoint of the target range to end 2025 at 3.926% (roughly 50 bps in cuts from current rate) and to end 2026 at 3.625% (a total of 75 bps in cuts from the current rate). Nearly 60% of our economists estimate the neutral nominal fed funds rate to be 3.0%-3.5%.
- Inflation: The median forecaster looks for core PCE inflation to end 2025 at 3.1% (year-over-year), up 0.7 pps from the last full survey in November 2024 and 0.3 pps higher than the March 2025 flash poll. The top factors influencing forecasts for core inflation estimates are trade policy, inflation expectations, and growth in domestic demand.
- Economy: The median economist forecasts real GDP will grow 0.9% in 2025; -1.0 pps from our last full survey in November 2024 and -0.6 pps from the March 2025 flash poll. Over 70% of our economists put the probability of recession from 30% to 50%. The top factors impacting US economic growth are US trade policy, US labor market developments, and US monetary policy. US trade policy also shows up near the top in both upside and downside risks to the economy.
- This report also includes forecast tables and charts for the full survey results, as well as an update on where we are in the economic landscape and a reference guide on historical trends for select economic data.
The full report can be found here.
